Pakistan demands explanation over drop in river flows

• Flows stabilising after ‘extraordinary’ dip
• Ministry reports Dec 10-16 volatility; suspects Baglihar drawdown and refill
• Lowest Chenab reading recorded at 870 cusecs
• Officials also flag disruption in Jhelum inflows at Mangla
• Islamabad maintains Indus treaty bars emptying dead storage on western run-of-river projects

ISLAMABAD / LAH­ORE: Reporting normalisation of Chenab River flows off late, Pakistan on Friday said it had sought an explanation from India over an “extraordinary reduction” in the river flows after what it described as the complete discharge and subsequent refilling of the Baglihar dam, in violation of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty.

In a statement, the Min­istry of Water Reso­urces said the discharge of the Chenab River (mainstem) had “successfully stabilised following a significant period of volatility”.

It said Pakistan’s Commissioner for Indus Waters had taken up the matter with his Indian counterpart and sought details and data regarding the reduction in flows “under the framework of the Indus Waters Treaty”.

According to the ministry, hydrological records for the first half of Dece­mber 2025 showed the unusual decline persisted from Dec 10 to Dec 16. During the period, flows frequently dropped, with the lowest reading reco­rded at 870 cusecs, which was far below the historical 10-year minimum range of around 4,018 to 4,406 cusecs for those dates.

The ministry said satellite imagery was reviewed to assess the cause of the decline at Marala. It said a “significant reduction” in the surface area of Baglihar was observed in imagery dated Dec 8, which then increased in imagery from Dec 13.

“This reduction, followed by an increase in the surface area of Baglihar reservoir, leads us to believe that India has emptied the Baglihar reservoir followed by its refilling,” the ministry said.

It maintained that under the Indus Waters Treaty, India cannot empty the dead storage of reservoirs of run-of-the-river hydropower projects built on the western rivers. It said an explanation had therefore been sought through the Permanent Indus Commission.

The ministry said a “positive shift” in river hydrology began on Dec 17, when flows began to rise steadily. By 7am on Dec 17, the flow had reached 6,399 cusecs, bringing it back within the historical 10-year range for the first time since the mid-month decline.

It said data shared by the Punjab Irrigation Dep­a­rtment — responsible for monitoring Chenab flows at Marala (excluding Jammu and Manawar Tawi) for onward transmission to the Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters — showed that by Dec 19 (Friday), flows were within the 10-year range of maximum and minimum readings.

For instance, the readings on Dec 19 showed flows of 4,505 and 6,494 cusecs, which align with or exceed historical expectations for this time of the year.

The ministry said continuous monitoring would remain in place to respond to any future fluctuations. It added that information attributed to sources other than the office of the Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters “carries no effect whatsoever”.

Jhelum inflows

Officials, however, said the Jhelum River had also been experiencing disruptions as Indian authorities were holding and releasing water abruptly.

A senior irrigation department official said the river was also experiencing less inflows from upstream (India) to downstream (Pakistan) at Mangla Dam.

“It is really serious and alarming as well because around 15 million of the total 25 million acres of agricultural land, which is irrigated through various canals, is either receiving less or no water these days,” he added.

According to an internal report, Jhelum inflows and outflows at Mangla were 5,000 cusecs and 33,000 cusecs, respectively, on Dec 14. Inflows then fell to 3,300 cusecs on Dec 15 and remained at that level through Dec 19, while outflows stayed at 33,000 cusecs.

By comparison, the report said inflows recor­ded on Dec 19-20 last year were 4,400 cusecs, with outflows of 25,000 cusecs.

A Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB) official pointed to similar readings at the Kerot Hydropower Project upstream of Mangla, suggesting abrupt upstream regulation by India. “The data at Kerot is also almost the same, which supports the view that water is being held and released abrupt­ly,” the official said, calling it a “serious matter”.

Another irrigation department official said the Chenab and Jhelum systems were crucial for irrigation through headworks, barrages and link canals, and warned that disruptions could harm crops. The official stressed that Pakistan had also faced difficulties during recent floods due to sudden releases without prior information.

Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters Syed Mehr Ali Shah could not be reached for comment despite repeated attempts by Dawn.

However, he was earlier quoted by a TV channel as saying that the Jhelum flows were being observed. “For now, we have written a letter to India about the Chenab River. We will look into the issue further upon receipt of a reply,” Mr Shah said, stressing that Pakistan would raise its voice whenever India stops water.

Published in Dawn, December 20th, 2025

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